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UNIRB vs Cajazeiras — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
FT
1 – 2
Cajazeiras
Cajazeiras
3/10/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 1Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

UNIRB59%
×Draw21%
Cajazeiras20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
2.03
Cajazeiras
1.08

UNIRB creates 88% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
Cajazeiras
1.40

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
Cajazeiras
1.60

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
Cajazeiras+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Cajazeiras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
80%
UNIRB or Cajazeiras
79%
Draw or Cajazeiras
41%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
36%
Cajazeiras wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
87%
UNIRB 2+ goals
60%
UNIRB 3+ goals
33%
Cajazeiras 1+ goals
66%
Cajazeiras 2+ goals
29%
Cajazeiras 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
75%
Cajazeiras (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Cajazeiras away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Cajazeiras defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.03

Cajazeiras attack 1.40 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UNIRB scores more
59%
level
21%
Cajazeiras scores more
20%

UNIRB at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNIRB vs Cajazeiras

Cajazeiras beat UNIRB 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.