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Northern Tigers vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Nepean
Nepean
7/27/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 26North Turramurra Recreation Area

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Northern Tigers60%
×Draw22%
Nepean18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Tigers
1.86
Nepean
0.91

Northern Tigers creates 104% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

creates per match

Northern Tigers
2.05
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

Northern Tigers
1.14
Nepean
1.67

finishing

Northern Tigers+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Tigers ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Northern Tigers or draw
82%
Northern Tigers or Nepean
78%
Draw or Nepean
40%

Winning margin

Northern Tigers wins by 2+
35%
Nepean wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Northern Tigers 1+ goals
84%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
55%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
28%
Nepean 1+ goals
60%
Nepean 2+ goals
23%
Nepean 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
77%
Nepean (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Tigers at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Tigers attack 2.05 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.86

Nepean attack 0.67 + Northern Tigers defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Northern Tigers scores more
60%
level
22%
Nepean scores more
18%

Northern Tigers at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Northern Tigers 4–0 Nepean

Northern Tigers beat Nepean 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at North Turramurra Recreation Area in Sydney.