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Nepean vs Northern Tigers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Northern Tigers
Northern Tigers
4/19/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 11Cook Park Saint Marys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean26%
×Draw22%
Northern Tigers52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.27
Northern Tigers
1.90

Northern Tigers creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
Northern Tigers
1.73

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
Northern Tigers
1.42

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
Northern Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

Northern Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
48%
Nepean or Northern Tigers
78%
Draw or Northern Tigers
74%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
11%
Northern Tigers wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
72%
Nepean 2+ goals
36%
Nepean 3+ goals
14%
Northern Tigers 1+ goals
85%
Northern Tigers 2+ goals
56%
Northern Tigers 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
33%
Northern Tigers (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Northern Tigers away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.42 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + Northern Tigers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northern Tigers attack 1.73 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nepean scores more
26%
level
22%
Northern Tigers scores more
52%

Northern Tigers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Northern Tigers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Nepean 1–2 Northern Tigers

Northern Tigers beat Nepean 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Cook Park Saint Marys in Sydney.