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Northern Ireland vs Kosovo — UEFA Nations League 2018

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kosovo
Kosovo
J. Magennis 90+2'
G. Whyte 82'
V. Muriqi 58'
9/24/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 5Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Northern Ireland33%
×Draw25%
Kosovo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland
1.31
Kosovo
1.49

Kosovo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland
1.70
Kosovo
1.58

allows per match

Northern Ireland
1.40
Kosovo
0.92

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par
Kosovo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Kosovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw
59%
Northern Ireland or Kosovo
75%
Draw or Kosovo
67%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+
15%
Kosovo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals
73%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
38%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
14%
Kosovo 1+ goals
77%
Kosovo 2+ goals
44%
Kosovo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
45%
Kosovo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Kosovo away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.70 + Kosovo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.31

Kosovo attack 1.58 + Northern Ireland defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Northern Ireland scores more
33%
level
25%
Kosovo scores more
41%

Kosovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
V. MuriqiKosovoKosovo · F
8.7

Match Events

44'
Betim Fazliji
58'
V. Muriqi↳ D. Rrudhani
67'
J. Thompson← G. Saville
69'
A. Zeneli← M. Rashica
76'
S. Lavery← D. Charles
76'
G. Whyte← C. Evans
77'
S. Ferguson← J. Lewis
78'
F. Loshaj← F. Muslija
82'
G. Whyte↳ S. Lavery
87'
Z. Bytyqi← E. Rashani
90+1'
A. McCann← S. Davis
90+2'
J. Magennis↳ G. Whyte

Possession

48%Northern

Shots

17Northern

Pass accuracy

50%Northern

Statistics

NorthernKosovo
Overview
48%Possession52%
17Total Shots12
5Corners3
10Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots12
10On Target7
5Off Target4
2Blocked1
11Inside Box8
6Outside Box4
Passing
48%Possession52%
393Total Passes430
313Accurate Passes348
80%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
6Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

UEFA Nations League: Northern Ireland 2–1 Kosovo

Northern Ireland beat Kosovo 2-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 24, 2022.

Goals: V. Muriqi (58'), G. Whyte (82'), J. Magennis (90+2').

Kosovo controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.