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Kosovo vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Kosovo
Kosovo
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
V. Muriqi 52', 9' (pen)
Z. Bytyqi 19'
D. Ballard 83'
S. Lavery 44'
6/9/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 3Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kosovo61%
×Draw23%
Northern Ireland15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kosovo
1.73
Northern Ireland
0.73

Kosovo creates 137% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

creates per match

Kosovo
2.00
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Kosovo
0.83
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Kosovo+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kosovo ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kosovo or draw
85%
Kosovo or Northern Ireland
77%
Draw or Northern Ireland
39%

Winning margin

Kosovo wins by 2+
35%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kosovo 1+ goals
82%
Kosovo 2+ goals
52%
Kosovo 3+ goals
25%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
52%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
17%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kosovo (draw refunded)
80%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kosovo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kosovo attack 2.00 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Kosovo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kosovo scores more
61%
level
23%
Northern Ireland scores more
15%

Kosovo at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kosovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
V. MuriqiKosovoKosovo · F
8.3

Match Events

9'
V. MuriqiPenalty
19'
Z. Bytyqi↳ M. Rashica
28'
Shayne Lavery
44'
S. Lavery↳ B. Spencer
52'
V. Muriqi
68'
D. Charles← K. Lafferty
68'
S. Charles← A. McCann
68'
G. Whyte← S. Lavery
73'
J. Thompson← G. Saville
75'
B. Fazliji← D. Rrudhani
79'
T. Domgjoni← V. Berisha
83'
D. Ballard↳ J. Thompson
86'
C. Bradley← B. Spencer
88'
Jordan Thompson
89'
Ibrahim Drešević
89'
E. Sahiti← M. Rashica
90+5'
Betim Fazliji
90+2'
Lirim Kastrati

Possession

59%Kosovo

Shots

10Kosovo

Pass accuracy

51%Kosovo

Statistics

KosovoNorthern
Overview
59%Possession41%
10Total Shots10
2Corners6
13Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots10
6On Target3
4Off Target4
0Blocked3
8Inside Box9
2Outside Box1
Passing
59%Possession41%
524Total Passes354
450Accurate Passes286
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Kosovo vs Northern Ireland

Kosovo beat Northern Ireland 3-2 in UEFA Nations League on June 9, 2022.

Goals: V. Muriqi (9' pen, 52'), Z. Bytyqi (19'), S. Lavery (44'), D. Ballard (83').

Kosovo controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Prishtinë.