Northern Ireland 0–1 Greece: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Greece

A. Bakasetas 39'

6/2/2022

UEFA Nations League · League C - 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Northern Ireland32%

×Draw27%

Greece41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern IrelandExpected goals in this matchGreece

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.33

Northern Ireland

1.13

Greece

1.33

Greece creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.70

creates per match

1.27

1.40

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Northern Ireland

1.70

Greece

1.27

allows per match

Northern Ireland

1.40

Greece

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Greece+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Greece →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw

59%

Northern Ireland or Greece

73%

Draw or Greece

68%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

13%

Greece wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

68%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

31%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

11%

Greece 1+ goals

74%

Greece 2+ goals

38%

Greece 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

43%

Greece (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Greece away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.70 + Greece defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Greece attack 1.27 + Northern Ireland defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Northern Ireland scores more

32%

level

27%

Greece scores more

41%

Greece at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Bakasetas

Greece · M

7.9

Match Events

39'

A. Bakasetas↳ D. Limnios

41'

Gavin Whyte

62'

N. McGinn← C. Bradley

62'

K. Lafferty← S. Lavery

69'

V. Pavlidis← D. Limnios

69'

T. Chatzigiovanis← G. Giakoumakis

69'

D. Kourbelis← A. Bakasetas

71'

D. Charles← G. Whyte

78'

T. Hume← P. Lane

79'

S. Charles← G. Saville

82'

G. Tzavellas← E. Siopis

84'

90+6'

90+3'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthernGreece

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots4

2Corners1

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots4

2On Target2

3Off Target2

3Blocked0

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box0

Passing

46%Possession54%

375Total Passes452

286Accurate Passes351

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Northern Ireland vs Greece

Greece beat Northern Ireland 1-0 in UEFA Nations League on June 2, 2022.

Goals: A. Bakasetas (39').

Greece controlled possession (54%) and registered 4 shots to 8.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.

Northern Ireland vs Greece — UEFA Nations League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Northern Ireland vs Greece