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Greece vs Northern Ireland — UEFA Nations League 2018

Greece
Greece
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
P. Mantalos 80'
G. Masouras 55'
D. Pelkas 14'
S. Lavery 18'
9/27/2022UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League C - 6Georgios Kamaras Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Greece57%
×Draw28%
Northern Ireland15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greece
1.38
Northern Ireland
0.55

Greece creates 151% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Greece
1.31
Northern Ireland
0.64

allows per match

Greece
0.46
Northern Ireland
1.45

finishing

Greece+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greece ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Greece or draw
85%
Greece or Northern Ireland
72%
Draw or Northern Ireland
43%

Winning margin

Greece wins by 2+
29%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Greece 1+ goals
75%
Greece 2+ goals
40%
Greece 3+ goals
16%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
42%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
11%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Greece (draw refunded)
80%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greece at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greece attack 1.31 + Northern Ireland defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Northern Ireland attack 0.64 + Greece defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Greece scores more
57%
level
28%
Northern Ireland scores more
15%

Greece at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Greece will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
P. HatzidiakosGreeceGreece · D
7.5

Match Events

9'
G. Saville← J. Thompson
14'
D. Pelkas
16'
Petros Mantalos
18'
S. Lavery↳ S. Davis
55'
G. Masouras↳ A. Bakasetas
67'
T. Douvikas← F. Ioannidis
67'
T. Fountas← D. Pelkas
68'
D. Charles← C. Bradley
68'
G. Whyte← S. Lavery
76'
T. Chatzigiovanis← G. Masouras
76'
A. Bouchalakis← A. Bakasetas
76'
S. Ferguson← J. Lewis
77'
C. McMenamin← J. Magennis
79'
Alistair McCann
80'
P. Mantalos↳ T. Douvikas
84'
Tom Flanagan
90+3'
D. Goutas← P. Mantalos

Possession

60%Greece

Shots

16Greece

Pass accuracy

53%Greece

Statistics

GreeceNorthern
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots3
4Corners1
13Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots3
4On Target1
5Off Target1
7Blocked1
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
475Total Passes308
423Accurate Passes242
89%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Greece vs Northern Ireland

Greece beat Northern Ireland 3-1 in UEFA Nations League on September 27, 2022.

Goals: D. Pelkas (14'), S. Lavery (18'), G. Masouras (55'), P. Mantalos (80').

Greece controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Georgios Kamaras Stadium in Athens.