Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Northern Ireland vs Estonia — Euro Championship 2024

Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estonia
Estonia
S. Davis 75' (pen)
N. McGinn 56'
3/21/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Windsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Northern Ireland82%
×Draw14%
Estonia4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern Ireland
2.38
Estonia
0.38

Northern Ireland creates 526% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Northern Ireland
1.00
Estonia
0.00

allows per match

Northern Ireland
0.75
Estonia
3.75

finishing

Northern Ireland+0.00on par
Estonia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland ↓

Estonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Northern Ireland or draw
96%
Northern Ireland or Estonia
86%
Draw or Estonia
18%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland wins by 2+
59%
Estonia wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Northern Ireland 1+ goals
91%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
68%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
42%
Estonia 1+ goals
32%
Estonia 2+ goals
6%
Estonia 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
95%
Estonia (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Estonia away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland attack 1.00 + Estonia defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Estonia attack 0.00 + Northern Ireland defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Northern Ireland scores more
82%
level
14%
Estonia scores more
4%

Northern Ireland at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
C. CathcartNorthern IrelandNorthern Ireland · D
7.8

Match Events

35'
Joonas Tamm
56'
N. McGinn↳ K. Lafferty
68'
K. Vassiljev← H. Ojamaa
75'
S. DavisPenalty
76'
J. Magennis← K. Lafferty
76'
S. Zenjov← H. Anier
81'
S. Ferguson← J. Jones
84'
C. McLaughlin← N. McGinn
85'
R. Sappinen← A. Dmitrijev

Possession

54%Northern

Shots

19Northern

Pass accuracy

52%Northern

Statistics

NorthernEstonia
Overview
54%Possession46%
19Total Shots5
6Corners3
9Fouls13
Shots
19Total Shots5
7On Target2
6Off Target2
6Blocked1
11Inside Box3
8Outside Box2
Passing
54%Possession46%
415Total Passes360
325Accurate Passes258
78%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
9Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
4Offsides2

Euro Championship: Northern Ireland 2–0 Estonia

Northern Ireland beat Estonia 2-0 in Euro Championship on March 21, 2019.

Goals: N. McGinn (56'), S. Davis (75' pen).

Northern Ireland controlled possession (54%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.