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Estonia vs Northern Ireland — Euro Championship 2024

Estonia
Estonia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland
K. Vassiljev 25'
J. Magennis 80'
C. Washington 77'
6/8/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3A. Le Coq Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Estonia27%
×Draw22%
Northern Ireland52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estonia
1.42
Northern Ireland
2.04

Northern Ireland creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Estonia
0.50
Northern Ireland
1.33

allows per match

Estonia
2.75
Northern Ireland
2.33

finishing

Estonia+0.00on par
Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estonia ↓

Northern Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Estonia or draw
48%
Estonia or Northern Ireland
78%
Draw or Northern Ireland
73%

Winning margin

Estonia wins by 2+
12%
Northern Ireland wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Estonia 1+ goals
76%
Estonia 2+ goals
41%
Estonia 3+ goals
17%
Northern Ireland 1+ goals
87%
Northern Ireland 2+ goals
60%
Northern Ireland 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Estonia (draw refunded)
34%
Northern Ireland (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estonia at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estonia attack 0.50 + Northern Ireland defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Northern Ireland attack 1.33 + Estonia defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estonia scores more
27%
level
22%
Northern Ireland scores more
52%

Northern Ireland at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Northern Ireland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
K. VassiljevEstoniaEstonia · M
7.8

Match Events

25'
K. Vassiljev
46'
C. Washington← L. Boyce
60'
George Saville
61'
E. Sorga← R. Sappinen
64'
Sergei Lepmets
64'
J. Jones← M. Smith
69'
J. Magennis← G. Saville
77'
C. Washington↳ J. Lewis
80'
J. Magennis↳ J. Jones
84'
J. Tamm← M. Käit
85'
G. Kams← T. Teniste

Possession

39%Estonia

Shots

9Estonia

Pass accuracy

46%Estonia

Statistics

EstoniaNorthern
Overview
39%Possession61%
9Total Shots15
4Corners7
15Fouls9
Shots
9Total Shots15
3On Target5
6Off Target9
0Blocked1
4Inside Box11
5Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
276Total Passes415
186Accurate Passes334
67%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Estonia vs Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland beat Estonia 2-1 in Euro Championship on June 8, 2019.

Goals: K. Vassiljev (25'), C. Washington (77'), J. Magennis (80').

Northern Ireland controlled possession (61%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn.