Northern Ireland U21 1–0 Latvia U21: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland U21

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia U21

S. Glenfield 60'

11/13/2025

League #850 · Group Stage - 10The BetMcLean Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northern Ireland U2157%

×Draw28%

Latvia U2116%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U21Expected goals in this matchLatvia U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.58

Northern Ireland U21

1.38

Latvia U21

0.58

Northern Ireland U21 creates 138% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.50

0.67

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Northern Ireland U21

1.00

Latvia U21

0.50

allows per match

Northern Ireland U21

0.67

Latvia U21

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U21+0.00on par

Latvia U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U21 ↓

Latvia U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U21 or draw

84%

Northern Ireland U21 or Latvia U21

72%

Draw or Latvia U21

43%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U21 wins by 2+

28%

Latvia U21 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U21 1+ goals

75%

Northern Ireland U21 2+ goals

40%

Northern Ireland U21 3+ goals

16%

Latvia U21 1+ goals

44%

Latvia U21 2+ goals

12%

Latvia U21 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U21 (draw refunded)

78%

Latvia U21 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Latvia U21 away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U21 attack 1.00 + Latvia U21 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Latvia U21 attack 0.50 + Northern Ireland U21 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Northern Ireland U21 scores more

57%

level

28%

Latvia U21 scores more

16%

Northern Ireland U21 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Northern Ireland U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

K. Morrison

60'

S. Glenfield

72'

I. Patrikejevs

75'

H. Wilson← K. Morrison

75'

C. Barr← S. Brown

81'

K. Mezsargs← D. Anisjko

82'

M. Strods

85'

E. Boroduska← V. Lizunovs

85'

R. Bocs← M. Strods

87'

D. Robinson

90+2'

S. Glenfield

Northern

Latvia

1

3

14

2

13

4

22

▼

Strods

7

Zaleiko

8

Patrikeje

10

▼

Anisjko

9

▼

1

2

6

5

3

7

▼

Brown

11

▼

Morrison

4

Robinson

8

⚽

Glenfield

10

Kenny

9

Kirk

Manager: Thomas James Wright

75'▲H. Wilson←▼K. Morrison

75'▲C. Barr←▼S. Brown

Northern Ireland U21 substitutes

12Munn23Barnsley14Briggs15McStravick16Patterson17Wilson18Doherty19Barr20McCann

Manager: Jakubs Dovalils

81'▲K. Mezsargs←▼D. Anisjko

85'▲E. Boroduska←▼V. Lizunovs

85'▲R. Bocs←▼M. Strods

Latvia U21 substitutes

12Pincuks5Volkovs11Evelons15Sitjakovs16Kacanovs17Boroduska18Vejkrigers19Mezsargs21Bocs

League #850: Northern Ireland U21 1–0 Latvia U21

Northern Ireland U21 beat Latvia U21 1-0 in League #850 on November 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Glenfield (60').

The match was played at The BetMcLean Oval in Belfast.

Northern Ireland U21 vs Latvia U21 — League #850 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #850: Northern Ireland U21 1–0 Latvia U21