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Latvia U21 vs Northern Ireland U21 — League #850 2026

Latvia U21
Latvia U21
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Northern Ireland U21
Northern Ireland U21
K. Mezsargs 14'
D. Moses 90+5'
E. Kenny 68'
M. Kirk 29'
3/31/2026League #850League #850 · Group Stage - 18Daugavas stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Latvia U2141%
×Draw24%
Northern Ireland U2135%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latvia U21
1.58
Northern Ireland U21
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Latvia U21
0.67
Northern Ireland U21
1.25

allows per match

Latvia U21
1.67
Northern Ireland U21
2.50

finishing

Latvia U21+0.00on par
Northern Ireland U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latvia U21 ↓

Northern Ireland U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Latvia U21 or draw
65%
Latvia U21 or Northern Ireland U21
76%
Draw or Northern Ireland U21
59%

Winning margin

Latvia U21 wins by 2+
20%
Northern Ireland U21 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Latvia U21 1+ goals
79%
Latvia U21 2+ goals
47%
Latvia U21 3+ goals
21%
Northern Ireland U21 1+ goals
77%
Northern Ireland U21 2+ goals
43%
Northern Ireland U21 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Latvia U21 (draw refunded)
53%
Northern Ireland U21 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latvia U21 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Northern Ireland U21 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latvia U21 attack 0.67 + Northern Ireland U21 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Northern Ireland U21 attack 1.25 + Latvia U21 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Latvia U21 scores more
41%
level
24%
Northern Ireland U21 scores more
35%

Latvia U21 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Latvia U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
K. Mezsargs↳ R. Kragliks
29'
M. Kirk
43'
J. Russell
50'
G. Zaleiko
67'
K. Cesnieks← R. Kragliks
68'
E. Kenny↳ M. Kirk
74'
D. Moses← M. Kirk
75'
M. Orr
79'
E. Evelons← K. Mezsargs
79'
C. Brannigan← A. Doherty
79'
C. Barr← S. Brown
83'
D. Robinson
90'
R. Donnelly← E. Kenny
90+5'
D. Moses↳ C. Brannigan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #850: Latvia U21 1–3 Northern Ireland U21

Northern Ireland U21 beat Latvia U21 3-1 in League #850 on March 31, 2026.

Goals: K. Mezsargs (14'), M. Kirk (29'), E. Kenny (68'), D. Moses (90+5').

The match was played at Daugavas stadions in Riga.