Northern Ireland U19 2–5 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Northern Ireland U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Norway U19

C. Marshall 59', 38'

E. Flataker 89' (pen), 56' (pen)

J. Eng 61', 45+1'

D. Murugesapillai 17'

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Stade Jacques-Mazzuca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Northern Ireland U1924%

×Draw22%

Norway U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern Ireland U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.91

Northern Ireland U19

1.21

Norway U19

1.91

Norway U19 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.00

creates per match

1.57

2.25

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Northern Ireland U19

1.00

Norway U19

1.57

allows per match

Northern Ireland U19

2.25

Norway U19

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Ireland U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Ireland U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Northern Ireland U19 or draw

46%

Northern Ireland U19 or Norway U19

78%

Draw or Norway U19

76%

Winning margin

Northern Ireland U19 wins by 2+

10%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Northern Ireland U19 1+ goals

70%

Northern Ireland U19 2+ goals

34%

Northern Ireland U19 3+ goals

12%

Norway U19 1+ goals

85%

Norway U19 2+ goals

57%

Norway U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Northern Ireland U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Ireland U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 8 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Ireland U19 attack 1.00 + Norway U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Norway U19 attack 1.57 + Northern Ireland U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Northern Ireland U19 scores more

24%

level

22%

Norway U19 scores more

54%

Norway U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Norway U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

30'

38'

45+1'

46'

46'

P. Charles← J. Clarke

56'

E. FlatakerPenalty

59'

C. Marshall

61'

J. Eng

62'

A. Nusa← J. Eng

62'

V. Solheim← S. Haram

65'

C. Falls← M. Kirk

65'

R. Morgan← D. Robinson

74'

D. Mccallion

76'

J. Roney← D. McCallion

87'

T. Fogarty

88'

P. Charles

89'

E. FlatakerPenalty

90+1'

R. Oudnie-Morgan

90'

A. Schjelderup← O. Sivertsen

90'

I. Hansen-Aarøen← M. Riisnæs

90'

N. Ødegård← I. Hjorteseth

Northern

Norway

12

Engh

2

⚽

Murugesap

13

Blikstad

14

▼

Haram

16

▼

Hjorteset

15

▼

Riisnæs

3

Egeli

18

Aas

20

▼

Sivertsen

9

⚽2

Flataker

19

⚽2

▼

Eng

1

▼

Clarke

2

Spencer

5

Fogarty

14

▼

McCallion

10

Scannell

6

▼

Robinson

20

▼

Sloan

3

Wightman

7

Lindsay

11

▼

Kirk

9

⚽2

Marshall

Manager: G. Lyttle

46'▲J. Doran←▼D. Sloan

46'▲P. Charles←▼J. Clarke

65'▲C. Falls←▼M. Kirk

65'▲R. Morgan←▼D. Robinson

76'▲J. Roney←▼D. McCallion

Northern Ireland U19 substitutes

17Doran12Charles18Falls16Morgan4Roney13Prendergast19Brown15Glenfield

Manager: Luis Pimenta

62'▲A. Nusa←▼J. Eng

62'▲V. Solheim←▼S. Haram

90'▲A. Schjelderup←▼O. Sivertsen

90'▲I. Hansen-Aarøen←▼M. Riisnæs

90'▲N. Ødegård←▼I. Hjorteseth

Norway U19 substitutes

17Nusa4Solheim7Schjelderup10Hansen-Aarøen8Ødegård1Ree5Hopland11Wassberg