Northern Colorado 0–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Northern Colorado

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chattanooga Red Wolves

9/22/2024

USL League One · Round 124Rivers Equipment Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Northern Colorado51%

×Draw23%

Chattanooga Red Wolves25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern ColoradoExpected goals in this matchChattanooga Red Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.17

Northern Colorado

1.77

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.17

Northern Colorado creates 51% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 100 away

1.95

creates per match

1.20

1.14

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Northern Colorado

1.95

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.20

allows per match

Northern Colorado

1.14

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw

75%

Northern Colorado or Chattanooga Red Wolves

77%

Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves

49%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

28%

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

83%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

53%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

26%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

69%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

33%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

67%

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.20 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Northern Colorado scores more

51%

level

23%

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

25%

Northern Colorado at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff