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Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
4/20/2024USL League OneUSL League One · Round 4CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves40%
×Draw26%
Northern Colorado34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.40
Northern Colorado
1.25

Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 12% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 43 away

creates per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.64
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.23
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw
66%
Chattanooga Red Wolves or Northern Colorado
74%
Draw or Northern Colorado
60%

Winning margin

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+
19%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals
75%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals
41%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals
17%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
71%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
36%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)
55%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.64 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more
40%
level
26%
Northern Colorado scores more
34%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Chattanooga Red Wolves 1–1 Northern Colorado

Chattanooga Red Wolves and Northern Colorado drew 1-1 in USL League One on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at CHI Memorial Stadium in East Ridge, Tennessee.