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Northern City vs Bolga AllStars — Division One League 2025

Northern City
Northern City
FT
4 – 4
HT: 3 – 1
Bolga AllStars
Bolga AllStars
10/13/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Northern City58%
×Draw22%
Bolga AllStars20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northern City
1.96
Bolga AllStars
1.07

Northern City creates 83% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Northern City
1.93
Bolga AllStars
0.64

allows per match

Northern City
1.50
Bolga AllStars
2.00

finishing

Northern City+0.00on par
Bolga AllStars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern City ↓

Bolga AllStars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Northern City or draw
80%
Northern City or Bolga AllStars
78%
Draw or Bolga AllStars
42%

Winning margin

Northern City wins by 2+
34%
Bolga AllStars wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Northern City 1+ goals
86%
Northern City 2+ goals
58%
Northern City 3+ goals
31%
Bolga AllStars 1+ goals
66%
Bolga AllStars 2+ goals
29%
Bolga AllStars 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Northern City (draw refunded)
74%
Bolga AllStars (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern City at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Bolga AllStars away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern City attack 1.93 + Bolga AllStars defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bolga AllStars attack 0.64 + Northern City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Northern City scores more
58%
level
22%
Bolga AllStars scores more
20%

Northern City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Northern City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northern City vs Bolga AllStars

Northern City and Bolga AllStars drew 4-4 in Division One League on October 13, 2025.