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Bolga AllStars vs Northern City — Division One League 2025

Bolga AllStars
Bolga AllStars
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Northern City
Northern City
4/5/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Bolga AllStars55%
×Draw22%
Northern City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolga AllStars
1.92
Northern City
1.14

Bolga AllStars creates 68% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Bolga AllStars
2.21
Northern City
1.07

allows per match

Bolga AllStars
1.21
Northern City
1.64

finishing

Bolga AllStars+0.00on par
Northern City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolga AllStars ↓

Northern City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bolga AllStars or draw
78%
Bolga AllStars or Northern City
78%
Draw or Northern City
45%

Winning margin

Bolga AllStars wins by 2+
32%
Northern City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bolga AllStars 1+ goals
85%
Bolga AllStars 2+ goals
57%
Bolga AllStars 3+ goals
30%
Northern City 1+ goals
68%
Northern City 2+ goals
32%
Northern City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bolga AllStars (draw refunded)
71%
Northern City (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolga AllStars at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Northern City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolga AllStars attack 2.21 + Northern City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.92

Northern City attack 1.07 + Bolga AllStars defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bolga AllStars scores more
55%
level
22%
Northern City scores more
22%

Bolga AllStars at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bolga AllStars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Bolga AllStars 3–3 Northern City

Bolga AllStars and Northern City drew 3-3 in Division One League on April 5, 2026.