NorthEast United 1–1 Minerva Punjab: Result & Stats

NorthEast United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Minerva Punjab

1/10/2025

Indian Super League · Round 16Indira Gandhi Athletic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

NorthEast United37%

×Draw24%

Minerva Punjab39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthEast UnitedExpected goals in this matchMinerva Punjab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.51

NorthEast United

1.46

Minerva Punjab

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 30 away

1.43

creates per match

1.33

1.69

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

NorthEast United

1.43

Minerva Punjab

1.33

allows per match

NorthEast United

1.69

Minerva Punjab

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NorthEast United ↓

Minerva Punjab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

NorthEast United or draw

61%

NorthEast United or Minerva Punjab

76%

Draw or Minerva Punjab

63%

Winning margin

NorthEast United wins by 2+

17%

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

NorthEast United 1+ goals

77%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

43%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

18%

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

78%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

44%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

49%

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NorthEast United at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.69 · 72 matches

Minerva Punjab away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NorthEast United attack 1.43 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Minerva Punjab attack 1.33 + NorthEast United defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

NorthEast United scores more

37%

level

24%

Minerva Punjab scores more

39%

Minerva Punjab at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff