Minerva Punjab 1–2 NorthEast United: Result & Stats

Minerva Punjab

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

NorthEast United

11/23/2024

Indian Super League · Round 9Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Minerva Punjab44%

×Draw25%

NorthEast United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Minerva PunjabExpected goals in this matchNorthEast United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.30

Minerva Punjab

1.57

NorthEast United

1.30

Minerva Punjab creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 68 away

1.38

creates per match

1.22

1.38

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Minerva Punjab

1.38

NorthEast United

1.22

allows per match

Minerva Punjab

1.38

NorthEast United

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minerva Punjab+0.00on par

NorthEast United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minerva Punjab ↓

NorthEast United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Minerva Punjab or draw

68%

Minerva Punjab or NorthEast United

75%

Draw or NorthEast United

56%

Winning margin

Minerva Punjab wins by 2+

22%

NorthEast United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Minerva Punjab 1+ goals

79%

Minerva Punjab 2+ goals

46%

Minerva Punjab 3+ goals

21%

NorthEast United 1+ goals

73%

NorthEast United 2+ goals

37%

NorthEast United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Minerva Punjab (draw refunded)

58%

NorthEast United (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minerva Punjab at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

NorthEast United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.76 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minerva Punjab attack 1.38 + NorthEast United defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

NorthEast United attack 1.22 + Minerva Punjab defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Minerva Punjab scores more

44%

level

25%

NorthEast United scores more

32%

Minerva Punjab at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Minerva Punjab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff