Northcote City 2–3 North Geelong Warriors

Northcote City

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

North Geelong Warriors

6/29/2024

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 20John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Northcote City48%

×Draw23%

North Geelong Warriors30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northcote CityExpected goals in this matchNorth Geelong Warriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.42

Northcote City

1.85

North Geelong Warriors

1.42

Northcote City creates 30% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 40 away

1.81

creates per match

1.60

1.24

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Northcote City

1.81

North Geelong Warriors

1.60

allows per match

Northcote City

1.24

North Geelong Warriors

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northcote City+0.00on par

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northcote City ↓

North Geelong Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Northcote City or draw

70%

Northcote City or North Geelong Warriors

77%

Draw or North Geelong Warriors

52%

Winning margin

Northcote City wins by 2+

26%

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Northcote City 1+ goals

84%

Northcote City 2+ goals

55%

Northcote City 3+ goals

28%

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals

76%

North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals

41%

North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Northcote City (draw refunded)

62%

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northcote City at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northcote City attack 1.81 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + Northcote City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Northcote City scores more

48%

level

23%

North Geelong Warriors scores more

30%

Northcote City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff