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North Geelong Warriors vs Northcote City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
FT
0 – 5
Northcote City
Northcote City
3/23/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Elcho Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

North Geelong Warriors42%
×Draw22%
Northcote City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Geelong Warriors
1.85
Northcote City
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 67 away

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.85
Northcote City
1.72

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.66
Northcote City
1.84

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par
Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

Northcote City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw
64%
North Geelong Warriors or Northcote City
78%
Draw or Northcote City
58%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
23%
Northcote City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
84%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
55%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
28%
Northcote City 1+ goals
82%
Northcote City 2+ goals
50%
Northcote City 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
54%
Northcote City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Northcote City attack 1.72 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more
42%
level
22%
Northcote City scores more
36%

North Geelong Warriors at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: North Geelong Warriors 0–5 Northcote City

Northcote City beat North Geelong Warriors 5-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Elcho Park in Lara.