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Northcote City vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Northcote City
Northcote City
FT
2 – 1
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
7/10/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 15John Cain Memorial Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Northcote City44%
×Draw24%
Moreland Zebras32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northcote City
1.60
Moreland Zebras
1.32

Northcote City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Northcote City
1.79
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Northcote City
1.21
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Northcote City+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northcote City ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Northcote City or draw
68%
Northcote City or Moreland Zebras
76%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
56%

Winning margin

Northcote City wins by 2+
22%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Northcote City 1+ goals
80%
Northcote City 2+ goals
47%
Northcote City 3+ goals
22%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
73%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
38%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Northcote City (draw refunded)
58%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northcote City at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 67 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northcote City attack 1.79 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Northcote City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Northcote City scores more
44%
level
24%
Moreland Zebras scores more
32%

Northcote City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Northcote City 2–1 Moreland Zebras

Northcote City beat Moreland Zebras 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at John Cain Memorial Reserve in Melbourne.