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Moreland Zebras vs Northcote City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
FT
4 – 1
Northcote City
Northcote City
4/15/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 5CB Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Moreland Zebras44%
×Draw23%
Northcote City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moreland Zebras
1.77
Northcote City
1.50

Moreland Zebras creates 18% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 67 away

creates per match

Moreland Zebras
1.69
Northcote City
1.72

allows per match

Moreland Zebras
1.28
Northcote City
1.84

finishing

Moreland Zebras+0.00on par
Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moreland Zebras ↓

Northcote City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Moreland Zebras or draw
67%
Moreland Zebras or Northcote City
77%
Draw or Northcote City
56%

Winning margin

Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
23%
Northcote City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
83%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
53%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
26%
Northcote City 1+ goals
78%
Northcote City 2+ goals
44%
Northcote City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
57%
Northcote City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moreland Zebras at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moreland Zebras attack 1.69 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.77

Northcote City attack 1.72 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moreland Zebras scores more
44%
level
23%
Northcote City scores more
33%

Moreland Zebras at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Moreland Zebras 4–1 Northcote City

Moreland Zebras beat Northcote City 4-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at CB Smith Reserve in Fawkner.