Northampton 0–1 Walsall: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Walsall

J. Clarke 13'

8/3/2019

League Two · Round 1PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton46%

×Draw27%

Walsall27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchWalsall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.01

Northampton

1.40

Walsall

1.01

Northampton creates 39% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

1.48

creates per match

1.13

0.89

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Walsall

1.13

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Walsall

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Walsall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

73%

Northampton or Walsall

73%

Draw or Walsall

54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

22%

Walsall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

75%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Walsall 1+ goals

64%

Walsall 2+ goals

27%

Walsall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

63%

Walsall (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Walsall attack 1.13 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more

46%

level

27%

Walsall scores more

27%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Clarke↳ D. Guthrie

38'

E. Adebayo

56'

A. McCormack

60'

S. McWilliams← A. McCormack

65'

A. Williams← M. Warburton

67'

R. Hall-Johnson

72'

L. Kinsella

72'

G. Liddle← D. Guthrie

76'

D. Scarr

78'

R. Watson← R. Hall-Johnson

80'

J. Gordon

87'

Z. Jules← J. Clarke

90'

R. Holden← J. Gordon

Northampton

Walsall

1

Roberts

4

Sadler

5

⚽

▼

6

2

3

16

A

▼

Guthrie

7

Sinclair

8

Kinsella

10

▼

11

1

3

16

2

▼

Hall-John

5

Goode

4

▼

14

10

7

20

▼

Warburton

9

Smith

Manager: K. Curle

60'▲S. McWilliams←▼A. McCormack

65'▲A. Williams←▼M. Warburton

78'▲R. Watson←▼R. Hall-Johnson

Northampton substitutes

17McWilliams11Williams8Watson6Turnbull22Roberts25Arnold12Pollock

Manager: D. Clarke

72'▲G. Liddle←▼D. Guthrie

87'▲Z. Jules←▼J. Clarke

90'▲R. Holden←▼J. Gordon

Walsall substitutes

26Liddle33Jules15Holden21Cockerill-Mollett13Rose25McDonald17Hardy