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Northampton vs Salford City — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
15:00
Salford City
Salford City
2/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Sixfields Stadium
Big match
42%
Northampton
model favours
42%27%31%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%
×Draw27%
Salford City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.34
Salford City
1.10

Northampton creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Salford City
1.31

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Salford City
1.20

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Salford City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
69%
Northampton or Salford City
73%
Draw or Salford City
58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
19%
Salford City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
74%
Northampton 2+ goals
39%
Northampton 3+ goals
15%
Salford City 1+ goals
67%
Salford City 2+ goals
30%
Salford City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
58%
Salford City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Salford City attack 1.31 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more
42%
level
27%
Salford City scores more
31%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Northampton
Balanced
Salford City
Attack-heavy
48%Possession52%
65%Pass accuracy67%
11.9ShotsBiggest gap13.2
—xG1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonSalford City

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Salford City
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–20–11–02–22–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
City
WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Northampton host Salford City

February 27, 2027: Northampton take on Salford City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Northampton host Salford City at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.