Northampton 2–0 Salford City: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Salford City

J. Turnbull 66'

S. Hoskins 35' (pen)

10/19/2019

League Two · Round 14PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%

×Draw27%

Salford City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchSalford City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.10

Northampton

1.34

Salford City

1.10

Northampton creates 22% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 156 away

1.48

creates per match

1.31

0.89

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Salford City

1.31

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Salford City

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Salford City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Salford City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

69%

Northampton or Salford City

73%

Draw or Salford City

58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

19%

Salford City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

74%

Northampton 2+ goals

39%

Northampton 3+ goals

15%

Salford City 1+ goals

67%

Salford City 2+ goals

30%

Salford City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

58%

Salford City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Salford City away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Salford City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Salford City attack 1.31 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more

42%

level

27%

Salford City scores more

31%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Cornell

Northampton · G

7.7

Match Events

35'

Cameron Burgess

35'

S. HoskinsPenalty

41'

Alan McCormack

42'

Joey Jones

47'

Michael Harriman

56'

S. Pollock← A. McCormack

61'

Scott Wharton

66'

J. Turnbull↳ A. Williams

71'

E. Dieseruvwe← A. Rooney

71'

D. Lloyd← J. Jones

75'

Billy Waters

81'

D. Whitehead← C. Conway

83'

P. Anderson← N. Adams

88'

S. McWilliams← B. Waters

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonSalford

Overview

54%Possession46%

12Total Shots8

3Corners4

12Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target3

6Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

357Total Passes287

226Accurate Passes148

63%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls14

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2