Northampton 1–3 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Rochdale

J. Guthrie 20'

A. Odoh 90+5'

J. Andrews 73'

M. Taylor 17'

8/21/2021

League Two · Round 4Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Northampton49%

×Draw27%

Rochdale24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.92

Northampton

1.42

Rochdale

0.92

Northampton creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 56 away

1.48

creates per match

0.95

0.89

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

76%

Northampton or Rochdale

73%

Draw or Rochdale

51%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

24%

Rochdale wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Rochdale 1+ goals

60%

Rochdale 2+ goals

23%

Rochdale 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

67%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Northampton scores more

49%

level

27%

Rochdale scores more

24%

Northampton at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. O'Connell

Rochdale · D

8.2

Match Events

17'

M. Taylor↳ A. Morley

20'

J. Guthrie↳ M. Pinnock

46'

Sid Nelson

46'

J. Keohane← M. Done

46'

J. Dorsett← S. Graham

63'

B. Ashley-Seal← N. Kabamba

63'

D. Rose← K. Etete

66'

Sam Hoskins

73'

J. Andrews↳ S. Dooley

78'

D. Connolly← S. McWilliams

79'

D. Cashman← J. Andrews

90+5'

A. Odoh↳ D. Cashman

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonRochdale

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots13

4Corners4

16Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target5

3Off Target5

5Blocked3

7Inside Box10

4Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

385Total Passes380

268Accurate Passes280

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0