Northampton 0–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rochdale

2/23/2021

League One · Round 31PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Northampton42%

×Draw25%

Rochdale33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Northampton

1.48

Rochdale

1.28

Northampton creates 16% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 72 away

1.11

creates per match

1.38

1.18

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Northampton

1.11

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Northampton

1.18

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

67%

Northampton or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

20%

Rochdale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

77%

Northampton 2+ goals

43%

Northampton 3+ goals

19%

Rochdale 1+ goals

72%

Rochdale 2+ goals

37%

Rochdale 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

56%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.18 · 102 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.11 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Northampton defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more

42%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

33%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

G. Bazunu

Rochdale · G

8.0

Match Events

46'

S. Hoskins← M. Miller

56'

Peter Kioso

65'

K. Baah← C. Grant

75'

Shaun McWilliams

84'

J. Sowerby← R. Watson

88'

D. Rose← M. Marshall

90'

Alan Sheehan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonRochdale

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots4

4Corners1

13Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots4

5On Target1

2Off Target2

3Blocked1

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box0

Passing

54%Possession46%

344Total Passes297

232Accurate Passes196

67%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1