Northampton 2–1 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hartlepool

L. Appéré 57'

T. Magloire 31'

J. Umerah 45+4'

8/13/2022

League Two · Round 3Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Northampton53%

×Draw25%

Hartlepool22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Northampton

1.63

Hartlepool

0.97

Northampton creates 68% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 81 away

1.48

creates per match

1.05

0.89

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

78%

Northampton or Hartlepool

75%

Draw or Hartlepool

47%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

28%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

80%

Northampton 2+ goals

48%

Northampton 3+ goals

22%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

62%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

25%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

70%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Northampton scores more

53%

level

25%

Hartlepool scores more

22%

Northampton at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Guthrie

Northampton · D

7.5

Match Events

31'

T. Magloire

39'

Mitchell Pinnock

45+4'

J. Umerah

46'

M. Leonard← J. Sowerby

52'

57'

58'

58'

69'

73'

J. Hamilton← J. Hastie

73'

T. Crawford← M. Sylla

76'

Tom Crawford

79'

K. Bowie← D. Hylton

88'

R. Haynes← M. Pinnock

90+3'

Ryan Haynes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonHartlepool

Overview

44%Possession56%

21Total Shots11

2Corners2

7Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots11

10On Target3

8Off Target1

3Blocked7

16Inside Box7

5Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

382Total Passes488

274Accurate Passes393

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2