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Hartlepool vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Hartlepool
Hartlepool
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
L. Molyneux 83'
D. Ferguson 52'
S. Hoskins 50'
10/9/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 11Victoria Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Hartlepool35%
×Draw27%
Northampton38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hartlepool
1.22
Northampton
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 88 away

creates per match

Hartlepool
1.20
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Hartlepool
1.30
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw
62%
Hartlepool or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
65%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+
15%
Northampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals
70%
Hartlepool 2+ goals
34%
Hartlepool 3+ goals
12%
Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
36%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)
48%
Northampton (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Northampton attack 1.24 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hartlepool scores more
35%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
38%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
S. HoskinsNorthamptonNorthampton · M
8.0

Match Events

50'
S. Hoskins↳ J. Guthrie
52'
D. Ferguson↳ J. Sterry
56'
David Ferguson
61'
J. Cook← L. Hendrie
62'
J. Grey← M. Shelton
66'
Sam Hoskins
78'
D. Connolly← J. Sowerby
79'
Aaron McGowan
83'
L. Molyneux↳ J. Grey
85'
N. Kabamba← M. Pinnock
87'
B. Ashley-Seal← K. Etete
88'
O. Odusina← M. Daly

Possession

53%Hartlepool

Shots

11Hartlepool

Pass accuracy

50%Hartlepool

Statistics

HartlepoolNorthampton
Overview
53%Possession47%
11Total Shots11
3Corners7
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots11
4On Target6
2Off Target4
5Blocked1
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
334Total Passes284
224Accurate Passes190
67%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides6

Match Recap: Hartlepool vs Northampton

Hartlepool beat Northampton 2-1 in League Two on October 9, 2021.

Goals: S. Hoskins (50'), D. Ferguson (52'), L. Molyneux (83').

Hartlepool controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Victoria Park in Hartlepool, County Durham.