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Northampton vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
Preview
15:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
1/16/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 25Sixfields Stadium
Big match
46%
Northampton
model favours
46%27%27%
1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton46%
×Draw27%
Grimsby27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.43
Grimsby
1.02

Northampton creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 138 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
73%
Northampton or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
23%
Grimsby wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
76%
Northampton 2+ goals
42%
Northampton 3+ goals
17%
Grimsby 1+ goals
64%
Grimsby 2+ goals
27%
Grimsby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
63%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more
46%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
27%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Northampton
Balanced
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
48%PossessionBiggest gap52%
65%Pass accuracy68%
11.9Shots12.6
—xG1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
NorthamptonGrimsby

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Grimsby
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
1–21–13–02–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Northampton
WDLLL
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northampton vs Grimsby — Match Preview

Northampton face Grimsby on January 16, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Northampton host Grimsby at Sixfields Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.