Northampton 1–2 Grimsby: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Grimsby

S. Hoskins 18'

A. Driscoll-Glennon 90+1'

L. Waterfall 74'

2/18/2023

League Two · Round 33Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton46%

×Draw27%

Grimsby27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchGrimsby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Northampton

1.43

Grimsby

1.02

Northampton creates 40% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 138 away

1.48

creates per match

1.15

0.89

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Grimsby

1.15

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Grimsby

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Grimsby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

73%

Northampton or Grimsby

73%

Draw or Grimsby

54%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

23%

Grimsby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

42%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Grimsby 1+ goals

64%

Grimsby 2+ goals

27%

Grimsby 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

63%

Grimsby (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.43

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Northampton scores more

46%

level

27%

Grimsby scores more

27%

Northampton at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Hoskins

Northampton · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

Daniel Amos

18'

S. Hoskins↳ L. Appéré

36'

Josh Emmanuel

46'

M. Efete← D. Orsi

46'

G. Lloyd← D. Amos

63'

A. Driscoll-Glennon← O. Gallacher

74'

L. Waterfall↳ J. Emmanuel

78'

W. Hondermarck← M. Pinnock

78'

J. Eppiah← L. Appéré

78'

S. McWilliams← J. Sowerby

85'

M. O'Neil← B. Morris

90+7'

Jon Guthrie

90+7'

Ryan Taylor

90+2'

Anthony Driscoll-Glennon

90+3'

T. Yengi← T. Magloire

90+3'

R. Taylor← J. McAtee

90+1'

A. Driscoll-Glennon↳ J. Emmanuel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonGrimsby

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots9

6Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots9

6On Target4

1Off Target5

5Blocked0

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

319Total Passes291

175Accurate Passes138

55%Pass Accuracy47%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3