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Grimsby vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Grimsby
Grimsby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
J. Maguire-Drew 88'
S. Hoskins 74'
8/6/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Grimsby35%
×Draw27%
Northampton38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grimsby
1.24
Northampton
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 141 home / 88 away

creates per match

Grimsby
1.24
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Grimsby
1.34
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Grimsby+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw
62%
Grimsby or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
65%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+
15%
Northampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals
71%
Grimsby 2+ goals
35%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%
Northampton 1+ goals
72%
Northampton 2+ goals
37%
Northampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)
48%
Northampton (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.34 · 141 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.24 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Northampton attack 1.24 + Grimsby defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Grimsby scores more
35%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
38%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. BurgeNorthamptonNorthampton · G
7.9

Match Events

46'
K. Bowie← L. Appéré
67'
R. Haynes← D. Hylton
74'
S. Hoskins↳ K. Bowie
75'
S. Wearne← K. Green
83'
M. Leonard← M. Pinnock
87'
J. Maguire-Drew← H. Clifton
88'
J. Maguire-Drew
90+1'
Ryan Haynes

Possession

57%Grimsby

Shots

23Grimsby

Pass accuracy

54%Grimsby

Statistics

GrimsbyNorthampton
Overview
57%Possession43%
23Total Shots8
5Corners1
17Fouls16
Shots
23Total Shots8
9On Target4
7Off Target2
7Blocked2
17Inside Box7
6Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
339Total Passes265
205Accurate Passes139
60%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
17Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Grimsby vs Northampton

Grimsby and Northampton drew 1-1 in League Two on August 6, 2022.

Goals: S. Hoskins (74'), J. Maguire-Drew (88').

Grimsby controlled possession (57%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Blundell Park in Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire.