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Northampton vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
M. Pinnock 90+5'
M. Stevens 69'
1/15/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%
×Draw27%
Forest Green31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.37
Forest Green
1.13

Northampton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Forest Green
1.36

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Forest Green
1.26

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
69%
Northampton or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
20%
Forest Green wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
75%
Northampton 2+ goals
40%
Northampton 3+ goals
16%
Forest Green 1+ goals
68%
Forest Green 2+ goals
31%
Forest Green 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
58%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more
42%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
31%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
M. PinnockNorthamptonNorthampton · M
7.9

Match Events

45'
Jack Sowerby
51'
Paul Lewis
64'
Fraser Horsfall
69'
M. Stevens↳ N. Cadden
73'
C. Zimba← P. Lewis
77'
J. March← M. Stevens
80'
Kane Wilson
83'
R. Hendry← J. Aitchison
84'
D. Rose← D. Connolly
90+6'
Mitchell Pinnock
90+5'
M. Pinnock↳ S. McWilliams

Possession

50%Northampton

Shots

11Northampton

Pass accuracy

49%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonForest
Overview
50%Possession50%
11Total Shots8
4Corners7
20Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots8
2On Target4
6Off Target3
3Blocked1
8Inside Box6
3Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
328Total Passes330
196Accurate Passes204
60%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Northampton vs Forest Green

Northampton and Forest Green drew 1-1 in League Two on January 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Stevens (69'), M. Pinnock (90+5').

Northampton controlled possession (50%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.