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Northampton vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
M. Mills 45' (OG)
12/14/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 21PTS Academy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton42%
×Draw27%
Forest Green31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.37
Forest Green
1.13

Northampton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 90 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.48
Forest Green
1.36

allows per match

Northampton
0.89
Forest Green
1.26

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
69%
Northampton or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
58%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
20%
Forest Green wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
75%
Northampton 2+ goals
40%
Northampton 3+ goals
16%
Forest Green 1+ goals
68%
Forest Green 2+ goals
31%
Forest Green 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
58%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Northampton scores more
42%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
31%

Northampton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
S. WhartonNorthamptonNorthampton · D
7.8

Match Events

30'
Ebou Adams
45'
M. MillsOwn goal
57'
E. Frear← A. Collins
67'
S. McWilliams← P. Anderson
70'
J. Mondal← M. Stevens
72'
H. Smith← V. Oliver
76'
Shaun McWilliams
80'
A. Williams← C. Lines

Possession

36%Northampton

Shots

12Northampton

Pass accuracy

45%Northampton

Statistics

NorthamptonForest
Overview
36%Possession64%
12Total Shots16
6Corners9
16Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots16
2On Target3
7Off Target8
3Blocked5
9Inside Box5
3Outside Box11
Passing
36%Possession64%
254Total Passes449
154Accurate Passes336
61%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls9
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

League Two: Northampton 1–0 Forest Green

Northampton beat Forest Green 1-0 in League Two on December 14, 2019.

Goals: M. Mills (45' o.g.).

Forest Green controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at PTS Academy Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.