Northampton 0–1 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Doncaster

G. Miller 69' (pen)

8/27/2022

League Two · Round 6Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Northampton26%

×Draw27%

Doncaster47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.40

Northampton

0.98

Doncaster

1.40

Doncaster creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 35 away

0.67

creates per match

1.46

1.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Northampton

0.67

Doncaster

1.46

allows per match

Northampton

1.33

Doncaster

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

53%

Northampton or Doncaster

73%

Draw or Doncaster

74%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

9%

Doncaster wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

62%

Northampton 2+ goals

26%

Northampton 3+ goals

8%

Doncaster 1+ goals

75%

Doncaster 2+ goals

41%

Doncaster 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

36%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 0.67 + Doncaster defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Doncaster attack 1.46 + Northampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Northampton scores more

26%

level

27%

Doncaster scores more

47%

Doncaster at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Pinnock

Northampton · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

Sam Hoskins

56'

Shaun McWilliams

69'

J. Sowerby← S. McWilliams

69'

D. Hylton← L. Appéré

69'

G. MillerPenalty

84'

R. Haynes← A. Koiki

84'

A. Odimayo← H. Lintott

89'

K. Agard← L. Tomlin

90+2'

Ro-Shaun Williams

90+7'

T. Kuleya← L. Molyneux

90+5'

A. Long← G. Miller

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonDoncaster

Overview

53%Possession47%

10Total Shots11

3Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots11

3On Target2

3Off Target2

4Blocked7

7Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

349Total Passes315

249Accurate Passes195

71%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0