Doncaster 0–0 Northampton: Result & Stats

Doncaster

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

3/13/2021

League One · Round 36The Keepmoat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Doncaster44%

×Draw26%

Northampton30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DoncasterExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

Doncaster

1.46

Northampton

1.15

Doncaster creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 50 away

1.25

creates per match

0.84

1.45

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Doncaster

1.25

Northampton

0.84

allows per match

Doncaster

1.45

Northampton

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Doncaster+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Doncaster ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Doncaster or draw

70%

Doncaster or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

56%

Winning margin

Doncaster wins by 2+

22%

Northampton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Doncaster 1+ goals

77%

Doncaster 2+ goals

43%

Doncaster 3+ goals

18%

Northampton 1+ goals

68%

Northampton 2+ goals

32%

Northampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Doncaster (draw refunded)

60%

Northampton (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Doncaster at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Doncaster attack 1.25 + Northampton defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.46

Northampton attack 0.84 + Doncaster defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Doncaster scores more

44%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

30%

Doncaster at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Doncaster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Mitchell

Northampton · G

7.9

Match Events

28'

T. Richards← S. Robertson

45'

Ryan Edmondson

46'

J. Coppinger← C. John

57'

B. Morris← S. McWilliams

61'

D. Rose← R. Edmondson

63'

Ryan Watson

72'

Madger Antonio← M. Smith

74'

M. Marshall← M. Miller

81'

Danny Rose

90'

Peter Kioso

90'

Mark Marshall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DoncasterNorthampton

Overview

66%Possession34%

10Total Shots8

4Corners10

7Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots8

5On Target1

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

3Inside Box6

7Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

503Total Passes238

403Accurate Passes150

80%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls18

0Yellow Cards5

1Offsides2