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Northampton vs Derby — League One 2018

Northampton
Northampton
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
3/23/2024League OneLeague One · Round 40Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Northampton29%
×Draw28%
Derby43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Northampton
1.02
Derby
1.29

Derby creates 26% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 46 away

creates per match

Northampton
1.05
Derby
1.39

allows per match

Northampton
1.19
Derby
0.98

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Northampton or draw
57%
Northampton or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
71%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+
11%
Derby wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals
64%
Northampton 2+ goals
27%
Northampton 3+ goals
8%
Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
37%
Derby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)
41%
Derby (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 93 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.05 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Derby attack 1.39 + Northampton defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Northampton scores more
29%
level
28%
Derby scores more
43%

Derby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Northampton vs Derby

Northampton beat Derby 1-0 in League One on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton, East Midlands.