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Derby vs Northampton — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
10/31/2023League OneLeague One · Round 7Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby58%
×Draw23%
Northampton19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.77
Northampton
0.90

Derby creates 97% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 94 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Northampton
0.96

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Northampton
1.78

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Derby or draw
81%
Derby or Northampton
77%
Draw or Northampton
42%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
33%
Northampton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
83%
Derby 2+ goals
53%
Derby 3+ goals
26%
Northampton 1+ goals
59%
Northampton 2+ goals
23%
Northampton 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
75%
Northampton (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Northampton defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Northampton attack 0.96 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Derby scores more
58%
level
23%
Northampton scores more
19%

Derby at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 4–0 Northampton

Derby beat Northampton 4-0 in League One on October 31, 2023.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.