Northampton 3–0 Colchester: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Colchester

B. Ashley-Seal 90+4'

S. Hoskins 49'

F. Horsfall 16'

2/19/2022

League Two · Round 33Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Northampton48%

×Draw27%

Colchester25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.93

Northampton

1.41

Colchester

0.93

Northampton creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 159 away

1.48

creates per match

0.96

0.89

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Northampton

1.48

Colchester

0.96

allows per match

Northampton

0.89

Colchester

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

75%

Northampton or Colchester

73%

Draw or Colchester

52%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

23%

Colchester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

76%

Northampton 2+ goals

41%

Northampton 3+ goals

17%

Colchester 1+ goals

61%

Colchester 2+ goals

24%

Colchester 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

66%

Colchester (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.89 · 90 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.48 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Colchester attack 0.96 + Northampton defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Northampton scores more

48%

level

27%

Colchester scores more

25%

Northampton at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Skuse

Colchester · M

8.0

Match Events

16'

F. Horsfall↳ M. Pinnock

35'

Alan Judge

49'

S. Hoskins↳ P. Lewis

60'

C. Andrews← T. Eastman

70'

N. Chilvers← E. Huws

71'

B. Lubala← J. Sowerby

79'

D. Rose← A. McGowan

81'

B. Ashley-Seal← L. Appéré

81'

T. Wright← F. Sears

90+4'

B. Ashley-Seal↳ S. Hoskins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonColchester

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots11

4Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

7On Target2

2Off Target5

4Blocked4

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

356Total Passes387

222Accurate Passes265

62%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1