Colchester 0–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Northampton

J. Guthrie 22'

8/14/2021

League Two · Round 2JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Colchester39%

×Draw27%

Northampton34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Colchester

1.28

Northampton

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 161 home / 88 away

1.32

creates per match

1.24

1.10

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Colchester

1.32

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Colchester

1.10

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

66%

Colchester or Northampton

73%

Draw or Northampton

61%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

17%

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

72%

Colchester 2+ goals

37%

Colchester 3+ goals

14%

Northampton 1+ goals

69%

Northampton 2+ goals

33%

Northampton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

54%

Northampton (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Northampton attack 1.24 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more

39%

level

27%

Northampton scores more

34%

Colchester at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Guthrie

Northampton · D

8.3

Match Events

22'

J. Guthrie

31'

Mitchell Pinnock

56'

D. Rose← K. Etete

58'

L. Hannant← C. Coxe

58'

F. Sears← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

75'

Sam Hoskins

76'

A. Koiki← M. Pinnock

80'

N. Chilvers← S. Jasper

84'

Fraser Horsfall

86'

S. Nelson← J. Mills

90+3'

Shaun McWilliams

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterNorthampton

Overview

64%Possession36%

11Total Shots8

8Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots8

5On Target2

1Off Target5

5Blocked1

9Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

464Total Passes264

317Accurate Passes138

68%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1