Northampton 1–3 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Northampton

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Cardiff

E. Wheatley 57'

C. Willock 90'

E. Wheatley 60' (OG)

J. Colwill 7'

11/22/2025

League One · Round 17Sixfields Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Northampton27%

×Draw26%

Cardiff47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorthamptonExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.52

Northampton

1.10

Cardiff

1.52

Cardiff creates 38% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

1.04

creates per match

1.74

1.29

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Northampton

1.04

Cardiff

1.74

allows per match

Northampton

1.29

Cardiff

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northampton+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northampton ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Northampton or draw

53%

Northampton or Cardiff

74%

Draw or Cardiff

73%

Winning margin

Northampton wins by 2+

11%

Cardiff wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Northampton 1+ goals

67%

Northampton 2+ goals

30%

Northampton 3+ goals

10%

Cardiff 1+ goals

78%

Cardiff 2+ goals

45%

Cardiff 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Northampton (draw refunded)

37%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northampton at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northampton attack 1.04 + Cardiff defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cardiff attack 1.74 + Northampton defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Northampton scores more

27%

level

26%

Cardiff scores more

47%

Cardiff at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Campbell

Northampton · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

J. Colwill↳ R. Kpakio

19'

William Fish

19'

D. Turnbull← R. Colwill

55'

Joel Colwill

57'

E. Wheatley↳ M. Forbes

58'

C. Willock← I. Davies

58'

A. Robertson← J. Colwill

58'

P. Ng← O. Kellyman

60'

E. WheatleyOwn goal

72'

E. List← T. Eaves

72'

K. Swyer← T. Fornah

81'

G. Osho← W. Fish

90+1'

M. Dyche← J. Burroughs

90'

C. Willock↳ R. Kpakio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorthamptonCardiff

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots10

1.54Expected Goals (xG)0.65

6Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target1

8Blocked5

15Inside Box6

1Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

414Total Passes389

318Accurate Passes304

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls10

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Northampton vs Cardiff

Cardiff beat Northampton 3-1 in League One on November 22, 2025.

Goals: J. Colwill (7'), E. Wheatley (57', 60' o.g.), C. Willock (90').

Northampton controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Sixfields Stadium in Northampton.

Northampton vs Cardiff — League One 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Northampton vs Cardiff