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Cardiff vs Northampton — League One 2025

Cardiff
Cardiff
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
Y. Salech 86'
O. Tanner 54', 9'
C. Robinson 37'
J. Colwill 19'
J. Evans 68'
4/25/2026League OneLeague One · Round 45Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Cardiff64%
×Draw21%
Northampton15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cardiff
2.02
Northampton
0.86

Cardiff creates 135% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cardiff
2.17
Northampton
0.72

allows per match

Cardiff
1.00
Northampton
1.88

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw
85%
Cardiff or Northampton
79%
Draw or Northampton
36%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+
40%
Northampton wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals
87%
Cardiff 2+ goals
60%
Cardiff 3+ goals
33%
Northampton 1+ goals
58%
Northampton 2+ goals
21%
Northampton 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)
81%
Northampton (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 2.17 + Northampton defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.02

Northampton attack 0.72 + Cardiff defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cardiff scores more
64%
level
21%
Northampton scores more
15%

Cardiff at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

47
C. RobinsonCardiffCardiff · F
9.2

Match Events

9'
O. Tanner↳ C. Willock
19'
J. Colwill↳ R. Colwill
37'
C. Robinson
42'
Sam Hoskins
46'
K. McAdam← K. Swyer
46'
E. List← J. Vale
54'
O. Tanner
55'
Y. Salech← R. Colwill
55'
A. Robertson← J. Colwill
65'
I. Davies← O. Tanner
65'
O. Kellyman← C. Willock
66'
J. Evans← S. Hoskins
68'
J. Evans↳ N. Guinness-Walker
74'
Alex Robertson
80'
T. Taylor← D. Campbell
81'
M. Jacobs← T. Fornah
86'
Y. Salech↳ C. Robinson
87'
R. Tankiewicz← D. Turnbull

Possession

73%Cardiff

Shots

25Cardiff

Pass accuracy

55%Cardiff

Statistics

CardiffNorthampton
Overview
73%Possession27%
25Total Shots10
3.73Expected Goals (xG)1.01
3Corners2
12Fouls8
Shots
25Total Shots10
11On Target5
6Off Target0
8Blocked5
18Inside Box3
7Outside Box7
Passing
73%Possession27%
657Total Passes234
592Accurate Passes176
90%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
12Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Cardiff vs Northampton

Cardiff beat Northampton 5-1 in League One on April 25, 2026.

Goals: O. Tanner (9', 54'), J. Colwill (19'), C. Robinson (37'), J. Evans (68'), Y. Salech (86').

Cardiff controlled possession (73%) and registered 25 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cardiff City Stadium in Cardiff.