North Texas 3–1 Lansing Ignite: Result & Stats

North Texas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lansing Ignite

6/30/2019

USL League One · Round 7Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

North Texas50%

×Draw24%

Lansing Ignite26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North TexasExpected goals in this matchLansing Ignite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

North Texas

1.75

Lansing Ignite

1.21

North Texas creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.50

0.92

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

North Texas

2.00

Lansing Ignite

1.50

allows per match

North Texas

0.92

Lansing Ignite

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par

Lansing Ignite+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

Lansing Ignite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

North Texas or draw

74%

North Texas or Lansing Ignite

76%

Draw or Lansing Ignite

50%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+

27%

Lansing Ignite wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals

83%

North Texas 2+ goals

52%

North Texas 3+ goals

25%

Lansing Ignite 1+ goals

70%

Lansing Ignite 2+ goals

34%

Lansing Ignite 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)

65%

Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Lansing Ignite away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.00 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lansing Ignite attack 1.50 + North Texas defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

North Texas scores more

50%

level

24%

Lansing Ignite scores more

26%

North Texas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff