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Lansing Ignite vs North Texas — USL League One 2019

Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
North Texas
North Texas
8/22/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 11Cooley Law School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lansing Ignite46%
×Draw25%
North Texas29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lansing Ignite
1.59
North Texas
1.22

Lansing Ignite creates 30% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 36 away

creates per match

Lansing Ignite
1.87
North Texas
1.31

allows per match

Lansing Ignite
1.13
North Texas
1.31

finishing

Lansing Ignite+0.00on par
North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lansing Ignite ↓

North Texas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lansing Ignite or draw
71%
Lansing Ignite or North Texas
75%
Draw or North Texas
54%

Winning margin

Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
23%
North Texas wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
80%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
47%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
21%
North Texas 1+ goals
70%
North Texas 2+ goals
34%
North Texas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
61%
North Texas (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lansing Ignite at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lansing Ignite attack 1.87 + North Texas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

North Texas attack 1.31 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lansing Ignite scores more
46%
level
25%
North Texas scores more
29%

Lansing Ignite at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lansing Ignite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Lansing Ignite 4–1 North Texas

Lansing Ignite beat North Texas 4-1 in USL League One on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Cooley Law School Stadium in Lansing, Michigan.