North Texas 3–0 Inter Miami II: Result & Stats

North Texas

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Miami II

10/3/2020

USL League One · Round 7Globe Life Park in Arlington

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

North Texas58%

×Draw22%

Inter Miami II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North TexasExpected goals in this matchInter Miami II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.01

North Texas

1.89

Inter Miami II

1.01

North Texas creates 87% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

North Texas

2.00

Inter Miami II

1.09

allows per match

North Texas

0.92

Inter Miami II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Texas+0.00on par

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Texas ↓

Inter Miami II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

North Texas or draw

80%

North Texas or Inter Miami II

78%

Draw or Inter Miami II

42%

Winning margin

North Texas wins by 2+

34%

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

North Texas 1+ goals

85%

North Texas 2+ goals

56%

North Texas 3+ goals

29%

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

64%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

27%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

North Texas (draw refunded)

74%

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Texas at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Texas attack 2.00 + Inter Miami II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.89

Inter Miami II attack 1.09 + North Texas defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

North Texas scores more

58%

level

22%

Inter Miami II scores more

20%

North Texas at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff