Inter Miami II 3–2 North Texas: Result & Stats

Inter Miami II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

North Texas

8/20/2020

USL League One · Round 3Inter Miami CF Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Inter Miami II36%

×Draw24%

North Texas39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Miami IIExpected goals in this matchNorth Texas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.52

Inter Miami II

1.45

North Texas

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

1.59

creates per match

1.31

1.73

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Inter Miami II

1.59

North Texas

1.31

allows per match

Inter Miami II

1.73

North Texas

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

North Texas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

North Texas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw

61%

Inter Miami II or North Texas

76%

Draw or North Texas

64%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

17%

North Texas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

77%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

42%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

18%

North Texas 1+ goals

78%

North Texas 2+ goals

45%

North Texas 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

48%

North Texas (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

North Texas away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.59 + North Texas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

North Texas attack 1.31 + Inter Miami II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Inter Miami II scores more

36%

level

24%

North Texas scores more

39%

North Texas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "North Texas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff