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North Sunshine Eagles vs North Geelong Warriors — Victoria NPL 2 2026

North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
A. Mazzaferro 85' (OG)
A. Iedom 57'
K. Elibol 45'
S. Brimmer 79'
P. Wall 35'
A. Chapman 30'
A. Banovac 8'
2/21/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Sunshine Eagles50%
×Draw22%
North Geelong Warriors28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Sunshine Eagles
1.97
North Geelong Warriors
1.41

North Sunshine Eagles creates 40% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 40 away

creates per match

North Sunshine Eagles
2.04
North Geelong Warriors
1.60

allows per match

North Sunshine Eagles
1.22
North Geelong Warriors
1.90

finishing

North Sunshine Eagles+0.00on par
North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Sunshine Eagles ↓

North Geelong Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

North Sunshine Eagles or draw
72%
North Sunshine Eagles or North Geelong Warriors
78%
Draw or North Geelong Warriors
50%

Winning margin

North Sunshine Eagles wins by 2+
29%
North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

North Sunshine Eagles 1+ goals
86%
North Sunshine Eagles 2+ goals
58%
North Sunshine Eagles 3+ goals
31%
North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
76%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
41%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

North Sunshine Eagles (draw refunded)
65%
North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Sunshine Eagles at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

North Geelong Warriors away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Sunshine Eagles attack 2.04 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.97

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.60 + North Sunshine Eagles defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

North Sunshine Eagles scores more
50%
level
22%
North Geelong Warriors scores more
28%

North Sunshine Eagles at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "North Sunshine Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
A. Banovac
30'
A. Chapman
35'
P. Wall
45'
K. Elibol
57'
A. Iedom
79'
S. Brimmer
85'
A. MazzaferroOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Sunshine Eagles vs North Geelong Warriors

North Geelong Warriors beat North Sunshine Eagles 4-3 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 21, 2026.

Goals: A. Banovac (8'), A. Chapman (30'), P. Wall (35'), K. Elibol (45'), A. Iedom (57'), S. Brimmer (79'), A. Mazzaferro (85' o.g.).