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North Geelong Warriors vs North Sunshine Eagles — Victoria NPL 2 2026

North Geelong Warriors
North Geelong Warriors
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
North Sunshine Eagles
North Sunshine Eagles
P. Wall 74', 64'
A. Chapman 47'
5/30/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

North Geelong Warriors48%
×Draw22%
North Sunshine Eagles30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

North Geelong Warriors
1.97
North Sunshine Eagles
1.52

North Geelong Warriors creates 30% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 23 away

creates per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.85
North Sunshine Eagles
1.39

allows per match

North Geelong Warriors
1.66
North Sunshine Eagles
2.09

finishing

North Geelong Warriors+0.00on par
North Sunshine Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Geelong Warriors ↓

North Sunshine Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

North Geelong Warriors or draw
70%
North Geelong Warriors or North Sunshine Eagles
78%
Draw or North Sunshine Eagles
52%

Winning margin

North Geelong Warriors wins by 2+
27%
North Sunshine Eagles wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

North Geelong Warriors 1+ goals
86%
North Geelong Warriors 2+ goals
58%
North Geelong Warriors 3+ goals
31%
North Sunshine Eagles 1+ goals
78%
North Sunshine Eagles 2+ goals
45%
North Sunshine Eagles 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

North Geelong Warriors (draw refunded)
62%
North Sunshine Eagles (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Geelong Warriors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

North Sunshine Eagles away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Geelong Warriors attack 1.85 + North Sunshine Eagles defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.97

North Sunshine Eagles attack 1.39 + North Geelong Warriors defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

North Geelong Warriors scores more
48%
level
22%
North Sunshine Eagles scores more
30%

North Geelong Warriors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "North Geelong Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
A. Chapman
64'
P. Wall
74'
P. Wall

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: North Geelong Warriors vs North Sunshine Eagles

North Geelong Warriors beat North Sunshine Eagles 3-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 30, 2026.

Goals: A. Chapman (47'), P. Wall (64', 74').