North Macedonia U19 0–1 Belgium U19: Result & Stats

North Macedonia U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Belgium U19

Y. Musuayi 72'

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

North Macedonia U1924%

×Draw27%

Belgium U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

North Macedonia U19Expected goals in this matchBelgium U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.39

North Macedonia U19

0.89

Belgium U19

1.39

Belgium U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.71

creates per match

1.64

1.14

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

North Macedonia U19

0.71

Belgium U19

1.64

allows per match

North Macedonia U19

1.14

Belgium U19

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Belgium U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

North Macedonia U19 ↓

Belgium U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–114%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

North Macedonia U19 or draw

51%

North Macedonia U19 or Belgium U19

73%

Draw or Belgium U19

76%

Winning margin

North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+

8%

Belgium U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

North Macedonia U19 1+ goals

59%

North Macedonia U19 2+ goals

22%

North Macedonia U19 3+ goals

6%

Belgium U19 1+ goals

75%

Belgium U19 2+ goals

40%

Belgium U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

North Macedonia U19 at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Belgium U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

North Macedonia U19 attack 0.71 + Belgium U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Belgium U19 attack 1.64 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

North Macedonia U19 scores more

24%

level

27%

Belgium U19 scores more

49%

Belgium U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Belgium U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Opoku← L. M. Tran

52'

A. Murdjeski← I. Ristov

57'

S. Brankovski

63'

J. Van Britsom← E. Keutgen

70'

S. Murru← L. Bentt

70'

Y. Musuayi← L. Decresson

72'

N. Damjanovski← S. Brankovski

72'

A. Mehmed← M. Kish

72'

Y. Musuayi↳ M. Debondt

77'

I. Struyf← W. Da Costa

84'

H. Ali← Z. Radevski

90+1'

A. Ljatifi

90+3'

K. Furo

North

Belgium

1

Driessche

2

▼

Tran

3

Manguelle

4

Engwanda

5

A

Debondt

8

▼

Bentt

6

Bafdili

18

▼

Keutgen

7

▼

Decresson

9

Furo

11

▼

1

14

5

6

16

▼

Ristov

17

Andonovsk

10

▼

Kish

4

Sabotikj

2

▼

Radevski

11

▼

Brankovsk

7

Ljatifi

Manager: V. Stanojković

52'▲A. Murdjeski←▼I. Ristov

72'▲N. Damjanovski←▼S. Brankovski

72'▲A. Mehmed←▼M. Kish

84'▲H. Ali←▼Z. Radevski

North Macedonia U19 substitutes

12Trajkovski3Murdjeski8Damjanovski9Ali13Krener15Ceka18Kasami19Loki20Mehmed

Manager: S. Vermant

46'▲D. Opoku←▼L. M. Tran

63'▲J. Van Britsom←▼E. Keutgen

70'▲S. Murru←▼L. Bentt

70'▲Y. Musuayi←▼L. Decresson

77'▲I. Struyf←▼W. Da Costa

Belgium U19 substitutes

12Doucoure10Britsom14Ndembi15Delorge16Murru17Verlinden19Musuayi20Opoku21Struyf