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Belgium U19 vs North Macedonia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Belgium U19
Belgium U19
CANC
12:00
North Macedonia U19
North Macedonia U19
9/5/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Estadio Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Belgium U1935%
×Draw23%
North Macedonia U1942%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgium U19
1.55
North Macedonia U19
1.72

North Macedonia U19 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Belgium U19
1.50
North Macedonia U19
1.60

allows per match

Belgium U19
1.83
North Macedonia U19
1.60

finishing

Belgium U19+0.00on par
North Macedonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgium U19 ↓

North Macedonia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Belgium U19 or draw
58%
Belgium U19 or North Macedonia U19
77%
Draw or North Macedonia U19
65%

Winning margin

Belgium U19 wins by 2+
17%
North Macedonia U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Belgium U19 1+ goals
79%
Belgium U19 2+ goals
46%
Belgium U19 3+ goals
20%
North Macedonia U19 1+ goals
82%
North Macedonia U19 2+ goals
51%
North Macedonia U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Belgium U19 (draw refunded)
45%
North Macedonia U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgium U19 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

North Macedonia U19 away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgium U19 attack 1.50 + North Macedonia U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

North Macedonia U19 attack 1.60 + Belgium U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Belgium U19 scores more
35%
level
23%
North Macedonia U19 scores more
42%

North Macedonia U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "North Macedonia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Belgium U19 host North Macedonia U19

September 5, 2020: Belgium U19 take on North Macedonia U19 in UEFA U19 Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Belgium U19 host North Macedonia U19 at Estadio Camilo Cano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.